Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | SIU -220 INST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +8 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -4.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -2.6 (+5.4) | 129.2 (-11.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -2.6 (+5.4) | 133.3 (-15.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -2.7 (+5.3) | 133.6 (-15.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -3.4 (+4.6) | 132.8 (-14.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#135) | 0.4 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#208) | -0.34 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#195) | -0.54 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#230) | 0.484 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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