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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–16 on winners spread MAE 9.1 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern +12.7 122.4 88% 44–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -2.7 140.8 40% 83–86 ✗
Stony Brook @ UAlbany +1.7 132.7 56% 86–75 ✗
Hartford @ Vermont +19.3 141.2 96% 72–82 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT +2.4 134.9 58% 68–57 ✗
North Florida @ Eastern Kentucky +9.4 149.2 80% 58–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine +2.7 117.8 60% 73–76 ✓
Dayton @ George Mason -0.3 128.1 49% 49–50 ✗
Furman @ Wofford +4.2 145.4 65% 75–50 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Akron +9.6 145.0 81% 44–46 ✓
San Francisco @ Pepperdine -13.7 144.6 11% 71–45 ✓
New Mexico @ Wyoming +16.3 154.0 93% 91–93 ✓
UT Martin @ Murray State +24.4 141.6 99% 66–74 ✓
Seattle U @ Tarleton State +1.0 133.6 54% 76–68 ✗
North Carolina @ Wake Forest +3.3 153.8 62% 76–98 ✓
Wright State @ UIC +1.3 150.9 55% 97–81 ✗
Troy @ Louisiana +3.4 140.2 62% 59–69 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +5.5 124.0 69% 62–70 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts +10.8 150.8 84% 72–71 ✗
North Dakota @ Kansas City +12.1 138.3 87% 74–79 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas +6.7 148.8 73% 90–79 ✗
San Diego @ Pacific -2.1 127.3 42% 73–65 ✓
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +6.6 144.0 73% 73–76 ✓
UCLA @ Colorado -5.5 141.5 31% 71–65 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton +9.9 139.4 82% 80–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Tech +1.8 159.9 56% 74–85 ✓
Portland @ BYU +20.0 142.2 97% 65–78 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +3.3 115.8 62% 42–37 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -6.6 131.4 27% 69–56 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge -6.5 116.0 28% 77–67 ✓
Montana State @ Portland State -6.5 134.6 28% 73–60 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount -6.9 125.8 26% 83–51 ✓
Arizona State @ Stanford +8.2 132.6 77% 76–79 ✓
Butler @ Providence +12.4 123.2 87% 62–69 ✓
Northwestern @ Purdue +14.9 158.2 91% 60–80 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Bryant +10.7 147.8 84% 68–85 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +10.6 128.4 83% 70–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Canisius -1.9 132.8 43% 60–63 ✗
Xavier @ Marquette -0.7 147.6 47% 64–75 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Mount St. Mary's +10.0 131.5 82% 50–65 ✓
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +2.2 140.5 58% 71–82 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville -8.1 146.0 23% 53–56 ✗
Fairfield @ Marist +5.2 132.6 68% 69–66 ✗
Manhattan @ Monmouth +13.1 145.2 88% 62–78 ✓
Iona @ Quinnipiac -9.2 152.0 20% 76–61 ✓
Massachusetts @ Saint Louis +12.3 161.3 87% 59–90 ✓
Arizona @ California -16.6 139.7 7% 96–71 ✓
Memphis @ Tulsa -4.2 145.5 35% 83–81 ✓
Wagner @ Merrimack -11.9 124.0 14% 71–57 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State +13.3 148.2 89% 68–75 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana +5.9 132.0 70% 80–62 ✗
UTEP @ UTSA -8.7 132.8 22% 59–54 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Francis +2.9 147.8 60% 74–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.