Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–43 on winners spread MAE 9.1 122 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Baylor @ Kansas +7.5 153.8 79% 62–80 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Dayton +15.4 138.6 90% 51–78 ✓
Marquette @ DePaul +4.8 135.7 71% 75–80 ✓
Ohio @ Ball State -5.3 141.2 28% 71–76 ✗
Colorado State @ Boise State +4.4 140.3 69% 73–79 ✓
UConn @ Georgetown -12.4 142.8 16% 64–62 ✓
Minnesota @ Illinois +15.8 138.1 89% 67–77 ✓
Virginia @ SMU +1.7 151.7 56% 72–68 ✗
Kentucky @ Tennessee +6.0 146.5 74% 80–78 ✗
Butler @ Seton Hall +5.4 136.4 74% 77–66 ✗
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech +5.4 139.3 72% 76–89 ✓
Georgia Tech @ NC State +16.9 152.0 90% 78–74 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Canisius -0.5 131.5 49% 78–68 ✓
Elon @ Hofstra +8.1 147.9 81% 89–85 ✗
Duquesne @ Fordham -0.3 144.2 51% 74–63 ✓
Alabama @ Oklahoma -4.2 168.6 32% 83–81 ✓
UCLA @ Ohio State +5.7 143.4 72% 74–86 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette -0.8 134.3 41% 55–74 ✗
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland -2.9 147.2 35% 57–74 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green +7.7 135.5 78% 79–85 ✓
Buffalo @ Miami (OH) +13.0 157.0 87% 102–105 ✓
Wagner @ New Haven +0.6 131.3 49% 74–80 ✓
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina +2.4 144.6 63% 90–82 ✗
Old Dominion @ App State +4.4 133.8 68% 75–73 ✗
Iowa State @ Cincinnati -7.4 137.5 21% 70–79 ✗
Florida @ Vanderbilt +5.5 158.5 73% 98–94 ✗
Bradley @ Illinois State +5.5 143.5 73% 62–88 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +9.8 136.7 85% 76–95 ✓
TCU @ Utah -5.9 148.7 31% 79–82 ✗
Rutgers @ Wisconsin +13.1 147.6 88% 87–96 ✓
Iowa @ Indiana +1.7 141.0 62% 74–57 ✗
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville -2.1 145.9 42% 69–67 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb -8.0 139.9 21% 92–55 ✓
Rider @ Saint Peter's +10.4 131.9 86% 58–69 ✓
Syracuse @ Boston College -6.5 132.9 25% 73–81 ✗
Navy @ Lehigh -3.7 136.6 36% 82–79 ✓
Columbia @ Brown -4.5 135.5 29% 80–86 ✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota State +3.6 149.1 66% 65–68 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota +0.3 157.3 52% 80–96 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +12.2 165.4 85% 68–102 ✓
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State -6.8 148.7 25% 78–80 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis -0.7 160.9 48% 80–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Akron +15.0 156.7 89% 89–104 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +9.8 132.7 83% 67–82 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan -6.2 140.6 27% 74–59 ✓
Princeton @ Harvard +5.1 132.2 71% 80–87 ✓
Stonehill @ Mercyhurst +5.0 128.1 70% 62–57 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis -9.5 138.8 17% 98–90 ✓
Le Moyne @ Chicago State -3.6 140.7 32% 72–57 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford -4.8 141.2 31% 76–75 ✓
West Georgia @ Florida Gulf Coast +7.2 152.4 79% 72–90 ✓
Queens University @ Stetson -6.8 155.2 28% 87–81 ✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas +10.6 156.0 86% 69–98 ✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International -0.5 156.6 45% 76–63 ✓
New Mexico State @ Delaware -6.0 132.1 28% 97–68 ✓
Miami @ Clemson +3.7 139.8 67% 59–69 ✓
Utah State @ Grand Canyon -6.3 141.6 28% 74–84 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ La Salle -2.0 140.6 41% 74–78 ✗
Longwood @ Radford +1.8 152.9 62% 83–85 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Valparaiso -1.6 127.7 40% 44–54 ✗
Drake @ UIC +2.7 137.4 65% 67–74 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Merrimack -2.0 133.6 43% 71–83 ✗
Massachusetts @ Northern Illinois -6.3 146.6 26% 68–70 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth +1.8 151.4 61% 84–74 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern +3.4 150.1 66% 79–75 ✗
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +0.4 132.7 55% 90–68 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky +5.2 157.7 74% 81–65 ✗
UTEP @ Liberty +12.5 135.9 88% 69–80 ✓
Georgia State @ UL Monroe -4.2 145.6 28% 77–57 ✓
Missouri @ LSU +4.5 148.5 69% 70–78 ✓
Arizona @ UCF -7.1 156.6 24% 84–77 ✓
Michigan @ Oregon -12.6 150.9 16% 81–71 ✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern -6.0 140.9 28% 77–58 ✓
North Carolina @ California -1.8 142.1 41% 78–84 ✗
Arkansas @ Georgia +3.1 173.0 63% 76–90 ✓
Indiana State @ Murray State +12.8 155.3 88% 81–85 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State +0.9 147.9 56% 72–71 ✗
Richmond @ Saint Louis +14.0 155.7 88% 63–88 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State -3.1 153.2 36% 78–82 ✗
Nevada @ Air Force -14.0 132.1 13% 81–66 ✓
Charleston @ Stony Brook -1.7 133.8 42% 106–112 ✗
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro -7.8 154.2 21% 102–92 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield -8.6 144.5 19% 83–62 ✓
Lamar @ Nicholls +2.8 136.5 65% 90–80 ✗
Louisiana @ South Alabama +9.4 131.4 84% 59–56 ✗
James Madison @ Marshall +6.3 148.5 76% 72–77 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech +0.3 139.6 49% 76–70 ✗
Western Illinois @ Little Rock +8.3 133.1 81% 79–86 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +7.2 135.0 76% 74–86 ✓
Howard @ North Carolina Central -2.7 137.0 39% 83–69 ✓
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State -6.6 136.0 24% 89–82 ✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State +3.1 129.7 65% 80–79 ✗
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +13.0 134.6 87% 67–70 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +7.3 129.3 77% 56–68 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian +2.6 134.9 60% 70–81 ✓
Arkansas State @ Troy +5.3 159.0 72% 74–99 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State -2.0 140.8 43% 67–74 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +9.5 143.3 84% 67–73 ✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin +5.3 135.2 74% 55–69 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State +4.5 135.7 69% 68–55 ✗
UNLV @ San José State -0.6 146.1 49% 76–62 ✓
Southern @ Grambling +4.7 148.2 69% 71–53 ✗
Wofford @ Furman +7.0 145.7 79% 74–70 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC Davis +0.2 142.1 51% 72–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word +7.8 136.2 79% 74–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +11.2 140.7 87% 52–63 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State +2.5 124.9 61% 60–64 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +10.8 147.3 87% 62–90 ✓
McNeese @ UT Rio Grande Valley -8.0 139.7 25% 76–79 ✗
Purdue @ USC -5.2 151.9 27% 69–64 ✓
Duke @ Stanford -9.1 143.3 19% 80–50 ✓
Michigan State @ Washington -2.8 135.9 32% 80–63 ✓
Pacific @ Oregon State -1.5 140.4 45% 81–64 ✓
Colorado @ West Virginia +3.7 141.3 67% 61–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ Florida State -3.0 155.5 39% 69–68 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ New Orleans -7.4 141.5 22% 84–79 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State +9.1 151.5 83% 84–66 ✗
Texas A&M @ Texas +4.7 167.1 70% 74–70 ✗
South Carolina @ Auburn +10.9 152.1 84% 67–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee +8.9 135.6 83% 87–90 ✓
Florida A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +2.7 149.0 65% 71–67 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi Valley State -11.2 140.6 15% 79–63 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.