Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | STAN +525 DUKE -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +30 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -12.0 (-18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -7.9 (-22.1) | 144.8 (-14.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -9.1 (-20.9) | 143.3 (-13.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -8.4 (-21.6) | 142.0 (-12.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -9.5 (-20.5) | 143.3 (-13.3) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | DUKE 106 – 70 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 17-1 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#70) | 24.4 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#36) | 4.71 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#49) | 6.95 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#28) | 0.681 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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