Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -105 DUQ -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -0.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -0.3 (-10.7) | 144.2 (-7.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -0.6 (-11.6) | 141.9 (-4.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -0.6 (-11.6) | 145.2 (-8.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -0.3 (-10.7) | 145.3 (-8.3) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | DUQ 73 – 64 FOR |
| Jan 26, 2025 | FOR 65 – 63 DUQ |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FOR 79 – 67 DUQ |
| Jan 27, 2024 | DUQ 68 – 59 FOR |
| Mar 4, 2023 | FOR 87 – 60 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#193) | 0.9 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#251) | -0.27 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#232) | -0.30 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#236) | 0.485 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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