Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +100 DUQ +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +27 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -0.3 (+26.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -0.3 (+26.7) | 145.2 (+1.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FOR -1.6 (+25.4) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | FOR -1.0 (+26.0) | 144.8 (+2.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -0.5 (+26.5) | 146.9 (+0.1) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | DUQ 74 – 63 FOR |
| Feb 20, 2025 | DUQ 73 – 64 FOR |
| Jan 26, 2025 | FOR 65 – 63 DUQ |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FOR 79 – 67 DUQ |
| Jan 27, 2024 | DUQ 68 – 59 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-2 | 16-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#150) | 4.2 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#84) | 0.69 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#100) | 0.82 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#76) | 0.543 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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