Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +120 DUQ -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -3.8 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -3.8 (+15.8) | 139.6 (+6.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | DUQ -2.0 (+14.0) | 139.6 (+6.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | DUQ -3.3 (+15.3) | 136.8 (+9.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -3.8 (+15.8) | 136.2 (+9.8) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | DUQ 74 – 63 FOR |
| Feb 20, 2025 | DUQ 73 – 64 FOR |
| Jan 26, 2025 | FOR 65 – 63 DUQ |
| Jan 27, 2024 | DUQ 68 – 59 FOR |
| Mar 4, 2023 | FOR 87 – 60 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-11 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#197) | 5.1 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#226) | 1.12 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#236) | 1.34 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#228) | 0.566 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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