Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | USC +350 PUR -455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -9.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -5.3 (+0.3) | 149.0 (-16.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.2 (+0.2) | 151.9 (-18.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -5.6 (+0.6) | 153.6 (-20.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.6 (+1.6) | 153.1 (-20.1) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2025 | PUR 76 – 71 USC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | PUR 90 – 72 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#58) | 22.5 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#25) | 4.51 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#34) | 5.63 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#24) | 0.681 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 51.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 2.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 35.9% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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