Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 181.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -155 ARK +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +14 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -4.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 187.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -4.0 (+10.0) | 174.4 (-8.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -5.6 (+8.4) | 171.5 (-5.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -3.1 (+10.9) | 173.0 (-7.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -3.0 (+11.0) | 174.1 (-8.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2025 | ARK 68 – 65 UGA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARK 78 – 75 UGA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UGA 76 – 66 ARK |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ARK 97 – 65 UGA |
| Feb 3, 2022 | ARK 99 – 73 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.4 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#19) | 17.5 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#44) | 2.97 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#39) | 4.03 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#59) | 0.621 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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