Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | UGA +450 ARK -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +26 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -9.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -9.8 (-16.2) | 153.9 (+18.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -9.7 (-16.3) | 153.3 (+18.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.1 (-16.9) | 152.3 (+19.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -8.4 (-17.6) | 152.6 (+19.4) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UGA 90 – 76 ARK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ARK 68 – 65 UGA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARK 78 – 75 UGA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UGA 76 – 66 ARK |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ARK 97 – 65 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-13 | 17-1 |
| Away | 0-10 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#204) | 11.3 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#233) | 2.03 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#225) | 2.55 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#233) | 0.583 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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