Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | UGA -130 ARK +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -5.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -5.5 (+4.5) | 151.7 (-9.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -4.2 (+5.8) | 149.7 (-7.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -5.4 (+4.6) | 146.8 (-4.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -5.2 (+4.8) | 148.1 (-6.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UGA 90 – 76 ARK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ARK 68 – 65 UGA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARK 78 – 75 UGA |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ARK 97 – 65 UGA |
| Feb 3, 2022 | ARK 99 – 73 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#93) | 4.6 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#44) | 1.19 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#54) | 1.43 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#31) | 0.543 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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