Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -1200 UGA +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +32 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -15.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -12.4 (+19.6) | 143.9 (+18.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -15.6 (+16.4) | 144.1 (+17.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -12.5 (+19.5) | 143.2 (+18.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -12.3 (+19.7) | 143.2 (+18.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UGA 90 – 76 ARK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ARK 68 – 65 UGA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARK 78 – 75 UGA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UGA 76 – 66 ARK |
| Feb 3, 2022 | ARK 99 – 73 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#17) | 1.8 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#40) | 0.94 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#34) | 1.29 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#20) | 0.525 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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