Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -163 UGA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -0.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -0.1 (+2.9) | 151.0 (+2.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -0.6 (+2.4) | 152.4 (+0.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -0.1 (+2.9) | 147.8 (+5.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -0.2 (+2.8) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UGA 90 – 76 ARK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ARK 68 – 65 UGA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UGA 76 – 66 ARK |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ARK 97 – 65 UGA |
| Feb 3, 2022 | ARK 99 – 73 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#124) | 6.5 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#102) | 1.58 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#103) | 1.79 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#110) | 0.567 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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