Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HCU -142 ETAM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -5.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -3.0 (+8.0) | 134.4 (+16.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -3.0 (+8.0) | 136.1 (+14.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -2.6 (+8.4) | 134.9 (+16.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -2.3 (+8.7) | 134.1 (+16.9) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | HCU 69 – 68 ETAM |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ETAM 63 – 59 HCU |
| Dec 6, 2024 | HCU 83 – 79 ETAM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ETAM 98 – 85 HCU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | HCU 69 – 65 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 6-16 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-14 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#277) | -9.2 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#336) | -1.26 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#326) | -1.73 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#335) | 0.458 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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