Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HCU -165 ETAM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -2.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -1.8 (+2.2) | 133.3 (+28.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -1.7 (+2.3) | 135.3 (+26.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -0.5 (+3.5) | 132.9 (+29.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -0.7 (+3.3) | 132.5 (+29.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | HCU 69 – 68 ETAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HCU 81 – 70 ETAM |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ETAM 63 – 59 HCU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ETAM 98 – 85 HCU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | HCU 69 – 65 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Away | 4-12 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#341) | -9.0 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#353) | -1.09 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.28 (#352) | -1.53 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.372 (#339) | 0.446 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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