Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | APP -305 ODU +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ODU +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -5.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -4.3 (-6.3) | 136.1 (+11.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -5.0 (-7.0) | 135.5 (+12.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -4.4 (-6.4) | 133.8 (+14.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -4.8 (-6.8) | 134.2 (+13.8) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | APP 81 – 73 ODU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ODU 61 – 56 APP |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ODU 78 – 77 APP |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APP 62 – 43 ODU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | APP 89 – 64 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#221) | -5.3 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#206) | -1.53 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#219) | -1.91 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#205) | 0.455 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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