Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | APP -750 ODU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ODU +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -14.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -10.2 (-11.2) | 130.2 (+24.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -12.1 (-13.1) | 134.2 (+20.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -10.2 (-11.2) | 129.0 (+26.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -10.9 (-11.9) | 128.5 (+26.5) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ODU 75 – 73 APP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | APP 81 – 73 ODU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ODU 61 – 56 APP |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APP 62 – 43 ODU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | APP 89 – 64 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#140) | -10.0 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#156) | -1.32 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#154) | -1.47 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#120) | 0.435 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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