Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | APP -1400 ODU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +25 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | APP -16.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -11.7 (+13.3) | 148.0 (+5.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -14.3 (+10.7) | 142.7 (+10.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -15.1 (+9.9) | 143.3 (+9.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -15.1 (+9.9) | 147.6 (+5.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ODU 75 – 73 APP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | APP 81 – 73 ODU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ODU 61 – 56 APP |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ODU 78 – 77 APP |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APP 62 – 43 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 3-15 |
| Home | 15-0 | 5-10 |
| Away | 8-5 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#85) | -6.1 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#62) | -1.74 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#79) | -1.73 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#48) | 0.416 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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