Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | APP -380 ODU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ODU +5 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -7.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -5.0 (-10.0) | 129.5 (-12.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -6.5 (-11.5) | 130.7 (-13.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -5.9 (-10.9) | 127.5 (-10.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -5.8 (-10.8) | 127.3 (-10.3) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ODU 75 – 73 APP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | APP 81 – 73 ODU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ODU 78 – 77 APP |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APP 62 – 43 ODU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | APP 89 – 64 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#170) | -8.6 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#178) | -1.08 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#172) | -1.38 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#131) | 0.454 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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