They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
Big Ten Conference · Welsh-Ryan Arena · January 17, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread NEB -4.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money NU +170 / NEB -205
Model Predictions
Spread Total NU win
Actual NEB +19 135 Lost
Massey NEB -5.7 (-13.3)
Massey Totals 147.7 (-12.7)
Bradley-Terry 1%
Weighted B-T 0%
Efficiency Plus ML NEB -3.4 (-15.6) 146.0 (-11.0) 39%
Baseline Tuned ML NEB -6.0 (-13.0) 140.9 (-5.9) 28%
Baseline ML NEB -5.1 (-13.9) 142.1 (-7.1) 35%
Baseline Plus ML NEB -5.2 (-13.8) 144.1 (-9.1) 28%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 NEB 6849 NU
Feb 16, 2025 NEB 6864 NU
Feb 8, 2024 NU 8068 NEB
Jan 20, 2024 NEB 7569 NU
Jan 26, 2023 NU 7863 NEB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NU NEB
Overall 15-19 28-7
Conference 5-15 15-5
Home 9-8 16-2
Away 3-8 7-3
Neutral 3-3 5-2
Last 5 1-4 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.1 77.0
Avg Pts Against 72.0 66.1
Massey 9.3 (#64) 18.4 (#18)
Bradley-Terry 0.34 (#144) 5.51 (#2)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.56 (#131) 7.23 (#3)
RPI 0.506 (#164) 0.679 (#5)
Shooting & Four Factors NU NEB
FG% 47.3% 47.2%
3PT% 31.3% 35.2%
REB / G 33.4 37.1
OREB / G 9.9 9.4
AST / TO 2.15 1.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.7% 56.3%
TOV% 12.3% 13.5%
ORB% 30.0% 27.6%
FT Rate 29.6% 22.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 46.4%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 19.1%
DRB% 65.5% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 26.0% 16.9%

Game Analysis

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