Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Big Ten Conference · Welsh-Ryan Arena · February 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread NU -5.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money NU -250 / NEB +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total NU win
Actual NU +12 148 Won
Massey NU -2.3 (+9.7) — —
Massey Totals — 149.5 (-1.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 66% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 69% ✓
Baseline Plus ML NU -2.7 (+9.3) 149.7 (-1.7) 64% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ NU -3.2 (+8.8) 146.3 (+1.7) 64% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML NU -2.8 (+9.2) 148.6 (-0.6) 66% ✓
Baseline ML NU -2.2 (+9.8) 150.1 (-2.1) 63% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 NEB 68 – 49 NU
Jan 17, 2026 NEB 77 – 58 NU
Feb 16, 2025 NEB 68 – 64 NU
Jan 20, 2024 NEB 75 – 69 NU
Jan 26, 2023 NU 78 – 63 NEB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NU NEB
Overall 22-12 23-11
Conference 12-8 12-8
Home 15-2 18-1
Away 4-7 3-8
Neutral 3-3 2-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 73.3 77.7
Avg Pts Against 69.1 70.9
Massey 9.0 (#66) 10.1 (#52)
Bradley-Terry 2.04 (#38) 1.98 (#41)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.62 (#31) 2.48 (#35)
RPI 0.573 (#64) 0.589 (#42)
Shooting & Four Factors NU NEB
FG% 47.5% 44.9%
3PT% 39.3% 36.6%
REB / G 30.1 38.0
OREB / G 8.0 9.9
AST / TO 1.78 1.38
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.8% 53.1%
TOV% 13.8% 16.2%
ORB% 25.0% 28.5%
FT Rate 20.1% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.0% 47.3%
Opp TOV% 20.2% 16.4%
DRB% 70.0% 69.9%
Opp FT Rate 30.0% 17.6%

Game Analysis

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