Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +245 UNC -305 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -3.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -4.0 (+10.0) | 144.8 (+17.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -1.8 (+7.8) | 142.1 (+19.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.1 (+8.1) | 143.3 (+18.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.4 (+7.4) | 144.0 (+18.0) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNC 79 – 53 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-5 | 18-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#73) | 15.4 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#58) | 2.94 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#66) | 3.63 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#76) | 0.634 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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