Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -2500 CAL +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +26 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -14.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.9 (-35.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -11.9 (+14.1) | 154.3 (-22.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -12.5 (+13.5) | 154.9 (-22.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -12.5 (+13.5) | 154.4 (-22.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -12.2 (+13.8) | 154.6 (-22.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | CAL 84 – 78 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#33) | 3.0 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#33) | 0.18 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#35) | 0.33 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#18) | 0.500 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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