The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–11 on winners spread MAE 8.2 44 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Youngstown State @ Wright State +7.6 140.8 80% 83–93 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee -1.7 162.5 44% 73–60 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +8.2 149.6 81% 71–96 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State -5.8 148.0 25% 88–73 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +10.9 133.2 87% 62–67 ✓
Elon @ Northeastern +0.1 158.9 50% 78–85 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary +10.6 149.0 86% 89–97 ✓
Drexel @ Monmouth +4.5 129.4 69% 73–51 ✗
Hofstra @ Stony Brook -8.3 131.5 20% 71–76 ✗
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +9.9 147.2 84% 66–69 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +3.4 151.5 68% 84–87 ✓
West Georgia @ Stetson -1.3 146.5 49% 86–95 ✗
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.0 161.0 59% 85–74 ✗
North Florida @ North Alabama +7.8 149.4 77% 105–91 ✗
UTEP @ Delaware +1.0 128.0 55% 70–69 ✗
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas +6.3 136.4 77% 60–62 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota +6.2 150.3 76% 83–99 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota -8.4 148.3 20% 91–80 ✓
Charleston @ Towson +1.0 135.0 55% 52–61 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama -0.4 147.3 49% 87–91 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay +10.2 146.8 85% 72–74 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +9.6 153.1 84% 71–81 ✓
California Baptist @ Abilene Christian -0.6 135.3 49% 74–58 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin +8.9 129.8 79% 59–65 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +7.5 142.4 79% 100–105 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock +1.7 132.4 59% 63–74 ✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah -9.8 148.1 17% 105–106 ✗
Wichita State @ Florida Atlantic +4.2 148.8 70% 67–85 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis +4.3 159.0 71% 69–74 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +3.6 146.0 65% 68–76 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State +8.9 155.0 83% 80–91 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech +4.8 137.9 68% 71–54 ✗
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +4.9 146.1 71% 88–76 ✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech -0.4 134.9 47% 56–52 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.5 146.5 39% 75–69 ✓
San Diego @ Seattle U +8.1 141.2 82% 64–75 ✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State +3.4 143.6 67% 73–88 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -8.3 144.5 22% 86–66 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC San Diego +10.6 151.3 86% 84–79 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State +4.2 150.8 72% 73–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State +0.8 144.8 53% 69–83 ✓
Gonzaga @ Washington State -14.6 147.5 15% 86–65 ✓
Creighton @ Providence +0.4 155.8 52% 88–93 ✓
Toledo @ Kent State +2.4 159.8 66% 84–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.