Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -625 DETM +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +25 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -9.6 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -8.8 (+16.2) | 152.7 (+14.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -8.2 (+16.8) | 149.6 (+17.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -7.7 (+17.3) | 152.4 (+14.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -9.0 (+16.0) | 152.8 (+14.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DETM 90 – 77 NKU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | NKU 99 – 75 DETM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DETM 68 – 57 NKU |
| Dec 19, 2024 | NKU 73 – 60 DETM |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NKU 79 – 67 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#178) | -6.8 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#162) | -1.10 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#172) | -1.40 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#187) | 0.448 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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