Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -250 BRAD +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +26 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -7.4 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -5.3 (+20.7) | 144.5 (+5.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -5.5 (+20.5) | 143.5 (+6.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -5.6 (+20.4) | 145.1 (+4.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -5.9 (+20.1) | 145.0 (+5.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | BRAD 74 – 60 ILST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ILST 82 – 71 BRAD |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BRAD 61 – 57 ILST |
| Feb 25, 2024 | BRAD 48 – 45 ILST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BRAD 73 – 60 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#80) | 3.9 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#133) | 0.72 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#134) | 0.76 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#136) | 0.550 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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