Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +310 MASS -395 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -7.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -7.3 (+9.3) | 147.1 (-9.1) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -6.3 (+8.3) | 146.6 (-8.6) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -6.7 (+8.7) | 145.4 (-7.4) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -6.5 (+8.5) | 149.1 (-11.1) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#322) | -0.3 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#309) | -0.10 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#316) | -0.07 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#289) | 0.484 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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