Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -425 BUCK +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +19 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -13.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -8.4 (+10.6) | 135.1 (+35.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -9.8 (+9.2) | 136.7 (+34.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -9.8 (+9.2) | 136.5 (+34.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -10.6 (+8.4) | 135.8 (+35.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | COLG 78 – 59 BUCK |
| Jan 21, 2025 | COLG 87 – 80 BUCK |
| Jan 5, 2025 | BUCK 66 – 60 COLG |
| Mar 10, 2024 | COLG 68 – 65 BUCK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | COLG 62 – 50 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#192) | -11.3 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#230) | -1.67 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#212) | -2.21 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#188) | 0.424 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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