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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–16 on winners spread MAE 10.9 38 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Belmont @ Southern Illinois	-3.3	146.3	36%	73–68	✓
Saint Mary's @ Santa Clara	+2.0	148.0	63%	54–62	✓
Wyoming @ Fresno State	-2.6	137.8	43%	60–63	✗
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point	+14.4	150.0	88%	69–89	✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky	+6.6	149.4	77%	92–89	✗
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-6.9	138.8	22%	66–59	✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington	+7.8	144.0	80%	75–78	✓
The Citadel @ VMI	+5.3	139.1	71%	82–68	✗
Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky	+2.5	149.4	64%	69–89	✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb	+2.7	144.0	65%	78–82	✓
BYU @ Texas Tech	+2.1	155.7	56%	71–84	✓
Louisville @ Pittsburgh	-4.8	146.1	27%	100–59	✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State	+2.1	142.2	59%	79–83	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge	+4.6	152.6	71%	87–80	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside	-3.1	151.8	39%	72–81	✗
St. John's @ Villanova	+3.5	144.6	63%	86–79	✗
Omaha @ Oral Roberts	+1.8	145.2	59%	73–62	✗
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State	+2.8	146.1	65%	68–67	✗
Abilene Christian @ Southern Utah	-4.5	143.6	28%	52–74	✗
Portland @ Loyola Marymount	+6.6	142.7	75%	71–58	✗
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara	-5.5	139.6	31%	62–77	✗
Montana @ Montana State	+4.5	145.0	71%	67–76	✓
Idaho @ Weber State	+3.8	149.1	70%	75–67	✗
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech	+0.9	149.5	53%	71–75	✓
Gonzaga @ Seattle U	-13.2	145.0	16%	71–50	✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State	+5.0	165.5	72%	83–84	✓
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State	-4.4	157.0	29%	89–93	✗
Florida Atlantic @ Temple	-1.6	145.2	42%	79–73	✓
Penn State @ Maryland	-1.0	142.4	50%	73–96	✗
American University @ Army	-3.9	144.4	35%	78–67	✓
Wichita State @ South Florida	+7.1	152.3	77%	86–85	✗
Charlotte @ East Carolina	-4.3	142.1	32%	73–70	✓
Oakland @ Green Bay	-1.1	152.6	45%	88–63	✓
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+2.5	143.5	63%	82–100	✓
Tulsa @ UAB	-2.1	154.4	45%	99–77	✓
North Texas @ Tulane	+1.7	131.3	55%	71–63	✗
UTSA @ Memphis	+18.8	135.0	91%	69–95	✓
Arizona State @ Houston	+14.7	138.2	88%	73–103	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.