Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -4500 UTSA +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +26 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -24.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -20.2 (+5.8) | 139.7 (+24.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MEM -19.4 (+6.6) | 138.1 (+25.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MEM -18.8 (+7.2) | 135.0 (+29.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -21.1 (+4.9) | 136.3 (+27.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2025 | MEM 75 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MEM 107 – 101 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-6 | 2-12 |
| Away | 3-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 82.9 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#102) | -15.9 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#105) | -1.94 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#105) | -2.55 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#113) | 0.440 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 36.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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