Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -2000 UTSA +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +6 | 208 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -20.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (+42.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -15.6 (-9.6) | 160.1 (+47.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MEM -17.0 (-11.0) | 160.1 (+47.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MEM -15.4 (-9.4) | 157.1 (+50.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -16.5 (-10.5) | 159.0 (+49.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MEM 95 – 69 UTSA |
| Mar 5, 2025 | MEM 75 – 70 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#56) | -6.6 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#8) | -1.42 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#18) | -1.66 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.658 (#8) | 0.414 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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