Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +320 MEM -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -10.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -9.5 (+4.5) | 154.7 (-9.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -9.0 (+4.0) | 157.8 (-12.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -9.3 (+4.3) | 156.1 (-11.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -9.7 (+4.7) | 157.3 (-12.3) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MEM 95 – 69 UTSA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MEM 107 – 101 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#201) | 11.8 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#241) | 3.08 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#230) | 3.56 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#209) | 0.654 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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