Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | USF -380 WICH +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WICH +1 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -7.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -7.1 (-8.1) | 152.3 (+18.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -4.8 (-5.8) | 154.0 (+17.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -7.0 (-8.0) | 153.7 (+17.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -6.8 (-7.8) | 154.4 (+16.6) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | USF 70 – 55 WICH |
| Feb 12, 2026 | USF 66 – 58 WICH |
| Mar 13, 2025 | WICH 73 – 68 USF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | WICH 75 – 70 USF |
| Jan 7, 2025 | USF 91 – 72 WICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#63) | 5.9 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#85) | 0.04 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#83) | 0.32 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#64) | 0.501 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 14.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 39.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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