Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | USF -270 WICH +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +15 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | USF -4.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-33.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -3.2 (+11.8) | 153.0 (-28.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -2.3 (+12.7) | 154.5 (-29.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -2.7 (+12.3) | 150.2 (-25.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -2.6 (+12.4) | 148.8 (-23.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | USF 66 – 58 WICH |
| Jan 18, 2026 | WICH 86 – 85 USF |
| Mar 13, 2025 | WICH 73 – 68 USF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | WICH 75 – 70 USF |
| Jan 7, 2025 | USF 91 – 72 WICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#47) | 7.9 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#63) | 1.07 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#55) | 1.30 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#31) | 0.548 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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