Betting Lines
| Spread | WICH -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | WICH -450 USF +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +19 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | WICH -10.5 (-29.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WICH -7.5 (-26.5) | 152.1 (+10.9) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WICH -6.5 (-25.5) | 156.0 (+7.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WICH -8.3 (-27.3) | 155.6 (+7.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WICH -7.5 (-26.5) | 152.9 (+10.1) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | USF 70 – 55 WICH |
| Feb 12, 2026 | USF 66 – 58 WICH |
| Jan 18, 2026 | WICH 86 – 85 USF |
| Mar 13, 2025 | WICH 73 – 68 USF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | WICH 75 – 70 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WICH | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#113) | -3.1 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#89) | -0.49 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#95) | -1.13 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#90) | 0.467 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WICH | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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