Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
VMI Keydets
68 – 82
FINAL Conference
The Citadel Bulldogs
Southern Conference · Cameron Hall · January 18, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread VMI -6.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money VMI -258 / CIT +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total VMI win
Actual CIT +14 150 Lost
Massey VMI -5.7 (-19.7) — —
Massey Totals — 144.7 (+5.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 86% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 93% ✗
Baseline Plus ML VMI -4.8 (-18.8) 140.4 (+9.6) 76% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ VMI -6.1 (-20.1) 141.0 (+9.0) 77% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML VMI -5.3 (-19.3) 139.1 (+10.9) 71% ✗
Baseline ML VMI -5.3 (-19.3) 139.9 (+10.1) 75% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 30, 2026 CIT 80 – 56 VMI
Mar 8, 2025 VMI 73 – 62 CIT
Feb 8, 2025 VMI 82 – 70 CIT
Jan 18, 2025 VMI 75 – 70 CIT
Feb 17, 2024 CIT 76 – 51 VMI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VMI CIT
Overall 6-26 11-22
Conference 1-17 7-11
Home 5-9 7-8
Away 1-14 3-12
Neutral 0-3 1-2
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L17 L1
Avg Pts For 68.5 68.3
Avg Pts Against 83.2 78.9
Massey -13.8 (#346) -16.2 (#355)
Bradley-Terry -2.18 (#337) -3.39 (#357)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.66 (#329) -4.58 (#359)
RPI 0.409 (#329) 0.348 (#361)
Shooting & Four Factors VMI CIT
FG% 38.0% 41.4%
3PT% 29.8% 30.9%
REB / G 32.2 32.1
OREB / G 11.4 10.2
AST / TO 0.94 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.9% 48.5%
TOV% 17.0% 18.4%
ORB% 29.2% 29.0%
FT Rate 23.6% 19.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.3% 57.3%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 13.3%
DRB% 60.2% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 26.3% 24.9%

Game Analysis

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