Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | STBK +160 COFC -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +6 | 218 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -1.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+78.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -2.1 (+8.1) | 136.9 (+81.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -1.7 (+7.7) | 133.8 (+84.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -1.3 (+7.3) | 134.8 (+83.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -1.2 (+7.2) | 135.0 (+83.0) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | COFC 81 – 74 STBK |
| Mar 12, 2024 | COFC 82 – 79 STBK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | COFC 93 – 87 STBK |
| Mar 5, 2023 | COFC 74 – 52 STBK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | COFC 92 – 52 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#251) | -0.7 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#216) | 0.37 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#240) | 0.33 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#234) | 0.521 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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