Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | STBK +240 COFC -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +6 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -2.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -4.3 (-1.7) | 152.8 (+27.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -1.5 (-4.5) | 146.1 (+33.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -2.2 (-3.8) | 149.6 (+30.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -2.3 (-3.7) | 148.1 (+31.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | STBK 112 – 106 COFC |
| Jan 30, 2025 | COFC 81 – 74 STBK |
| Mar 12, 2024 | COFC 82 – 79 STBK |
| Mar 5, 2023 | COFC 74 – 52 STBK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | COFC 92 – 52 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#240) | 3.4 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#168) | 1.31 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#132) | 1.57 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#188) | 0.587 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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