Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | COFC -500 STBK +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -6.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -5.4 (-2.4) | 151.3 (+9.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -8.5 (-5.5) | 152.7 (+8.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -5.6 (-2.6) | 150.3 (+10.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -5.8 (-2.8) | 151.3 (+9.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | STBK 112 – 106 COFC |
| Jan 30, 2025 | COFC 81 – 74 STBK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | COFC 93 – 87 STBK |
| Mar 5, 2023 | COFC 74 – 52 STBK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | COFC 92 – 52 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 10-2 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#103) | -1.5 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#77) | 0.11 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#86) | 0.22 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#60) | 0.515 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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