Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | COFC -2500 STBK +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -17.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -13.2 (-6.2) | 147.2 (+7.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -13.2 (-6.2) | 147.6 (+7.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -13.2 (-6.2) | 146.6 (+8.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -13.5 (-6.5) | 146.6 (+8.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | STBK 112 – 106 COFC |
| Mar 12, 2024 | COFC 82 – 79 STBK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | COFC 93 – 87 STBK |
| Mar 5, 2023 | COFC 74 – 52 STBK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | COFC 92 – 52 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#131) | -12.2 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#89) | -2.04 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#95) | -2.69 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#63) | 0.410 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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