Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -8000 STBK +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +40 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -22.3 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -18.5 (+21.5) | 144.6 (-0.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -17.8 (+22.2) | 144.2 (-0.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -19.5 (+20.5) | 145.2 (-1.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -19.7 (+20.3) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | STBK 112 – 106 COFC |
| Jan 30, 2025 | COFC 81 – 74 STBK |
| Mar 12, 2024 | COFC 82 – 79 STBK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | COFC 93 – 87 STBK |
| Mar 5, 2023 | COFC 74 – 52 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 11-2 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#63) | -10.0 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#31) | -1.54 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#39) | -2.05 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#34) | 0.427 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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