Tire tracks all across your back - I can see you've had your fun. "Crosstown Traffic"- Jimi Hendrix
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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92–35 on winners spread MAE 8.4 127 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb -11.6 145.2 14% 65–67 ✗
High Point @ Radford -11.2 161.6 17% 93–83 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Longwood -0.7 151.6 47% 79–81 ✗
Massachusetts @ Buffalo +2.3 153.8 66% 68–67 ✗
Chicago State @ Saint Francis +1.0 137.8 53% 60–81 ✓
Long Island University @ Stonehill -5.3 133.2 25% 66–63 ✓
Wagner @ Le Moyne +5.8 141.7 71% 67–69 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +8.5 139.4 79% 76–66 ✗
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +16.3 142.0 88% 55–84 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State -4.2 135.6 25% 58–75 ✗
Tulane @ Charlotte +3.7 142.3 63% 70–73 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan +16.4 158.7 88% 62–74 ✓
Marquette @ Butler +11.5 155.3 86% 76–87 ✓
Akron @ Ohio -8.5 164.6 21% 86–65 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southern Indiana +4.2 130.3 65% 64–96 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State -3.0 147.0 38% 65–61 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford -2.2 157.6 45% 77–80 ✗
Ole Miss @ Kentucky +12.1 143.5 87% 63–72 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Florida -2.1 159.0 49% 114–117 ✗
Wake Forest @ Duke +17.6 149.7 89% 69–90 ✓
Nebraska @ Minnesota -7.0 134.4 24% 76–57 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +18.6 134.5 90% 48–91 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia +7.9 144.9 79% 85–80 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State -7.6 155.6 24% 88–56 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia Tech -7.4 138.9 22% 77–63 ✓
American University @ Holy Cross -2.6 135.2 36% 76–67 ✓
NC State @ Pittsburgh -7.5 146.6 27% 81–72 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +4.1 134.9 62% 53–63 ✓
Niagara @ Sacred Heart +8.4 134.7 79% 70–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton -3.8 133.0 37% 75–67 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +2.7 155.0 67% 70–80 ✓
Towson @ North Carolina A&T -3.2 133.2 32% 73–80 ✗
Monmouth @ Campbell +2.7 143.6 64% 88–73 ✗
Hofstra @ William & Mary +2.5 149.4 59% 82–89 ✓
Villanova @ UConn +10.8 135.0 80% 67–75 ✓
Georgetown @ Providence +5.7 156.7 71% 81–78 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +2.2 131.9 57% 68–73 ✓
Georgia @ Texas -0.9 166.8 48% 67–87 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State +0.7 149.0 57% 76–62 ✗
Illinois State @ Belmont +4.1 142.7 71% 69–80 ✓
Temple @ UTSA -12.0 139.0 14% 70–64 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +4.3 149.3 75% 80–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +4.2 147.6 67% 65–64 ✗
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +3.7 146.0 72% 71–67 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Marist +3.4 134.6 65% 64–71 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant -6.1 132.0 26% 62–52 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +5.0 144.4 68% 56–79 ✓
Texas State @ James Madison +3.6 140.6 65% 57–82 ✓
Southern Miss @ Coastal Carolina +1.6 141.0 64% 67–85 ✓
South Carolina @ Texas A&M +8.6 154.7 81% 69–92 ✓
Delaware @ Liberty +14.5 135.6 87% 51–67 ✓
St. John's @ Xavier -5.4 152.2 25% 88–83 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +13.7 138.2 89% 76–103 ✓
Army @ Navy +11.8 143.0 87% 56–84 ✓
VMI @ Western Carolina +8.6 147.3 78% 58–88 ✓
West Virginia @ Arizona +16.1 139.2 86% 53–88 ✓
Houston @ Texas Tech +2.6 137.2 59% 86–90 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard +12.9 140.3 89% 78–77 ✗
George Mason @ Rhode Island -1.1 133.1 40% 65–74 ✗
Duquesne @ Loyola Chicago -7.6 152.6 22% 71–59 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Joseph's -5.9 137.1 30% 74–81 ✗
Boston University @ Colgate +7.1 149.5 76% 79–80 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -4.2 143.5 32% 82–72 ✓
Miami @ Syracuse -1.0 145.9 43% 85–76 ✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland +1.6 143.2 60% 62–67 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth -0.6 151.7 49% 79–69 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota -5.9 156.1 27% 90–78 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +2.2 134.4 54% 53–58 ✓
Cornell @ Harvard +4.7 155.1 71% 86–79 ✗
Yale @ Pennsylvania -5.7 150.9 33% 77–60 ✓
Binghamton @ Maine +5.7 126.9 73% 63–79 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +1.4 133.8 54% 72–80 ✓
Northeastern @ Drexel +5.1 138.1 68% 78–83 ✓
Chattanooga @ Samford +2.6 145.4 60% 64–75 ✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia State -3.5 145.1 33% 81–82 ✗
Oklahoma @ Missouri +4.5 147.4 74% 87–88 ✓
Florida International @ New Mexico State +7.4 147.6 79% 81–78 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston +6.7 150.5 76% 58–73 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Louisville +12.4 155.1 86% 71–85 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana +0.0 137.6 49% 61–67 ✓
Queens University @ West Georgia -7.3 159.1 23% 66–74 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +8.0 129.8 77% 58–62 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +4.4 144.8 63% 88–82 ✗
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -8.7 152.9 21% 84–71 ✓
Richmond @ George Washington +8.0 151.8 79% 69–85 ✓
UCF @ Colorado +0.1 151.0 51% 95–86 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Merrimack +1.8 130.7 54% 59–67 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -8.0 143.5 22% 86–58 ✓
Oakland @ Detroit Mercy -6.2 161.9 33% 95–87 ✓
Troy @ Georgia Southern -5.1 161.0 30% 83–78 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville +0.8 140.7 46% 76–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern -2.5 143.0 41% 74–89 ✗
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan +0.8 148.0 55% 76–75 ✗
New Orleans @ McNeese +14.0 150.1 87% 63–82 ✓
Tennessee State @ Lindenwood +2.4 150.7 65% 96–86 ✗
Auburn @ Florida +8.4 156.7 79% 76–67 ✗
Murray State @ Northern Iowa +0.6 135.0 51% 76–81 ✓
San José State @ Wyoming +12.7 140.0 87% 62–66 ✓
Memphis @ Wichita State +4.4 142.9 68% 59–74 ✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman +9.3 152.2 82% 48–85 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV -3.9 149.5 31% 82–71 ✓
Florida State @ SMU +13.3 158.2 88% 80–83 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +21.5 136.5 90% 54–96 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver +3.7 155.7 72% 93–86 ✗
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +7.3 133.4 80% 61–71 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar -6.1 133.8 24% 88–81 ✓
Missouri State @ UTEP -0.4 138.0 45% 62–57 ✓
Tulsa @ Rice -12.0 149.7 18% 87–81 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word -0.2 129.7 44% 79–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Houston Christian -2.6 140.3 38% 68–51 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +9.3 158.6 80% 81–85 ✓
VCU @ Davidson -3.6 143.3 39% 75–69 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul -2.2 127.8 35% 60–67 ✗
Bowling Green @ Toledo -1.0 150.0 46% 72–73 ✗
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +8.7 147.3 81% 66–74 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho +0.1 143.7 48% 69–66 ✗
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +4.7 154.9 70% 67–75 ✓
Utah @ BYU +17.6 159.5 89% 78–91 ✓
Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M +2.1 151.3 60% 95–80 ✗
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M +8.3 142.7 79% 58–66 ✓
Pepperdine @ Washington State +8.9 141.2 80% 79–95 ✓
TCU @ Baylor +3.9 146.9 71% 97–90 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +4.8 151.6 71% 75–74 ✗
Northwestern @ UCLA +6.2 140.2 75% 64–71 ✓
Boston College @ Notre Dame +8.2 133.3 77% 64–68 ✓
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +7.8 145.8 81% 65–77 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana +5.2 145.7 75% 60–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.