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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–6 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+4.7 | 143.9 | 71% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 135.0 | 65% | 54–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 148.4 | 40% | 74–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 135.7 | 85% | 55–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 151.8 | 88% | 57–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 162.8 | 45% | 93–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 134.6 | 44% | 68–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.0 | 147.5 | 91% | 66–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.8 | 151.1 | 31% | 86–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 142.3 | 70% | 85–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 144.7 | 77% | 73–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.2 | 141.5 | 17% | 75–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 140.9 | 65% | 78–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.9 | 144.2 | 30% | 77–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 147.2 | 25% | 77–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.1 | 145.3 | 76% | 88–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 141.2 | 57% | 71–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 161.3 | 73% | 79–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.6 | 144.4 | 78% | 91–102 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.3 | 154.6 | 15% | 85–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 140.4 | 52% | 68–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 140.7 | 70% | 61–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.4 | 149.7 | 85% | 68–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 157.8 | 70% | 75–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 141.3 | 78% | 57–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 128.6 | 74% | 59–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 155.0 | 75% | 73–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.