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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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91–35 on winners spread MAE 7.9 126 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago	+3.2	140.4	70%	69–78	✓
Cornell @ Harvard	-5.4	148.5	34%	73–75	✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale	+18.5	148.5	90%	71–72	✓
Princeton @ Brown	-1.9	139.1	41%	56–70	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay	-4.3	142.7	29%	73–60	✓
Ohio @ Kent State	+5.3	142.6	74%	75–76	✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's	+4.7	127.6	68%	52–65	✓
Marist @ Siena	+0.2	132.6	58%	65–64	✗
Merrimack @ Manhattan	-0.4	138.9	49%	75–79	✗
Rider @ Iona	+4.3	138.3	66%	74–71	✗
Quinnipiac @ Sacred Heart	-1.1	152.0	45%	99–90	✓
UCLA @ Indiana	-1.7	138.7	41%	72–68	✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee	+4.9	147.6	71%	80–88	✓
Nevada @ San José State	-4.4	135.5	32%	73–58	✓
Arkansas @ Texas A&M	+7.9	137.1	81%	61–69	✓
Clemson @ Florida State	-2.2	142.3	37%	72–46	✓
Rice @ Tulane	+4.1	138.4	74%	78–81	✓
Miami @ Pittsburgh	+13.0	149.5	87%	65–74	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts	-0.1	137.7	51%	73–59	✓
DePaul @ Xavier	+12.1	149.2	87%	68–85	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman	+1.7	135.5	59%	58–50	✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason	+5.8	132.4	77%	57–58	✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee	+14.5	141.3	88%	76–81	✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue	+5.9	146.5	72%	94–84	✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State	+0.6	153.5	51%	76–85	✓
Bucknell @ Lafayette	-0.1	141.9	40%	75–69	✓
Colgate @ Boston University	-1.0	133.7	55%	91–93	✗
Chicago State @ Le Moyne	+3.2	148.7	75%	75–80	✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut	+11.5	134.9	87%	67–83	✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire	-6.8	148.8	32%	79–80	✗
UMBC @ Bryant	+10.9	162.2	87%	79–81	✓
Army @ Navy	+2.7	141.8	68%	54–61	✓
Houston @ Arizona	+0.0	133.8	41%	62–58	✗
High Point @ Winthrop	-2.5	158.7	39%	88–66	✓
West Virginia @ Baylor	+8.3	136.0	81%	71–74	✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech	+0.6	132.4	43%	73–70	✗
Boston College @ NC State	+8.3	142.8	82%	62–70	✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh	+4.3	137.6	74%	60–72	✓
Washington @ Penn State	+6.1	146.7	72%	75–73	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University	+2.4	135.8	61%	58–62	✓
Binghamton @ NJIT	-3.7	135.8	29%	75–71	✓
Vermont @ Maine	+3.9	126.0	59%	65–61	✗
Georgetown @ Butler	+4.9	141.6	75%	86–97	✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina	-10.0	131.6	16%	74–73	✓
App State @ Georgia State	-3.2	139.4	40%	65–70	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris	+1.6	151.4	66%	69–76	✓
Charleston @ North Carolina A&T	-7.8	151.9	23%	69–59	✓
Drexel @ William & Mary	-0.3	143.6	54%	59–72	✗
Monmouth @ Towson	+8.4	136.4	79%	54–80	✓
Hofstra @ Hampton	-0.4	131.4	54%	49–67	✗
Jacksonville @ North Alabama	+4.9	142.6	71%	79–92	✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota	+5.1	154.9	73%	77–88	✓
Denver @ North Dakota State	+11.7	149.4	83%	84–89	✓
Samford @ Wofford	-0.6	148.1	46%	76–68	✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State	+9.4	149.2	84%	83–89	✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo	-1.1	150.6	41%	63–59	✓
Duquesne @ Dayton	+9.9	136.6	83%	76–77	✓
UConn @ Seton Hall	-11.6	131.2	16%	68–69	✗
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan	-5.2	148.1	34%	70–78	✗
Morehead State @ Western Illinois	-2.1	131.1	41%	67–72	✗
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State	-10.9	148.3	20%	93–55	✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate	-5.8	153.8	30%	96–87	✓
UCF @ Colorado	+0.8	150.6	61%	63–76	✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe	-3.4	141.6	34%	74–81	✗
Grand Canyon @ UT Arlington	-4.1	149.1	32%	82–75	✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood	+3.0	138.6	64%	78–81	✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M	-6.1	134.0	23%	65–55	✓
Missouri @ Georgia	+1.0	144.3	58%	87–74	✗
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill	+3.8	133.9	58%	73–85	✓
The Citadel @ Western Carolina	+6.9	142.1	81%	73–76	✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan	-3.6	151.4	39%	73–80	✗
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston	+0.3	146.1	55%	76–78	✓
Stony Brook @ Northeastern	+8.3	139.6	81%	60–71	✓
Auburn @ Alabama	-0.9	175.3	40%	94–85	✓
Stanford @ Duke	+16.8	141.2	90%	70–106	✓
Cincinnati @ Iowa State	+10.8	138.3	86%	70–81	✓
East Carolina @ Charlotte	-1.3	146.7	48%	75–59	✓
California @ Georgia Tech	+1.7	145.8	65%	88–90	✓
La Salle @ Rhode Island	+5.8	152.5	75%	71–86	✓
George Washington @ Davidson	+2.9	138.8	65%	74–67	✗
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-13.8	141.9	14%	75–63	✓
Howard @ Delaware State	+2.1	151.0	63%	69–90	✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State	+10.7	134.7	85%	53–88	✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University	+5.7	135.3	77%	51–72	✓
Minnesota @ USC	+6.8	140.7	74%	69–66	✗
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State	-4.7	134.9	27%	65–61	✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern	+5.0	148.7	69%	75–78	✓
Texas State @ South Alabama	+5.4	141.0	78%	65–70	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield	+7.9	137.6	75%	54–91	✓
Campbell @ Delaware	-0.6	144.2	48%	96–91	✓
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky	+5.0	155.1	74%	80–86	✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech	+2.3	136.1	60%	70–68	✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville	+9.0	152.1	83%	72–75	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State	+0.7	131.0	45%	70–68	✗
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central	+11.3	138.8	88%	59–71	✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+6.7	138.8	75%	55–69	✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana	+2.6	141.0	62%	81–84	✓
VMI @ Mercer	+5.0	151.7	74%	80–71	✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville	+3.9	144.8	67%	72–84	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois	-3.0	137.5	30%	72–68	✓
Morgan State @ South Carolina State	+10.2	157.0	85%	62–90	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State	+7.3	147.2	82%	69–83	✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth	-2.7	157.7	43%	49–88	✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State	+0.5	145.6	49%	71–82	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb	+9.2	142.5	84%	68–82	✓
Stetson @ Austin Peay	+8.5	146.4	85%	63–76	✓
Texas Southern @ Grambling	-0.2	136.3	41%	67–60	✓
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman	+3.6	135.6	50%	78–74	✗
Houston Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+4.8	142.3	72%	52–76	✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas	-3.5	164.0	49%	83–84	✗
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss	+5.0	147.7	68%	81–71	✗
Presbyterian @ Longwood	+7.1	143.1	81%	77–68	✗
UTSA @ Tulsa	+0.7	145.8	57%	76–80	✓
North Carolina @ Syracuse	-4.9	158.7	23%	88–82	✓
Wake Forest @ SMU	+7.6	144.8	75%	77–66	✗
Fordham @ Richmond	+1.6	145.8	59%	66–70	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Southern	+12.1	150.6	87%	60–72	✓
Jackson State @ Florida A&M	+0.1	145.0	46%	71–76	✓
Pennsylvania @ Brown	+6.1	144.1	75%	72–82	✓
Columbia @ Harvard	+0.4	145.6	56%	75–87	✓
McNeese @ New Orleans	-15.4	141.9	12%	78–64	✓
Villanova @ Providence	-1.2	139.7	49%	62–75	✗
LSU @ Oklahoma	+7.2	149.7	78%	82–79	✗
Pacific @ Oregon State	+14.4	139.6	88%	65–79	✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-8.5	150.1	19%	75–63	✓
West Georgia @ Bellarmine	-0.2	146.7	40%	81–76	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.