Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | CCU +380 JMU -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -8.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -10.0 (+9.0) | 131.6 (+15.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -8.6 (+7.6) | 130.1 (+16.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -9.3 (+8.3) | 130.6 (+16.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -10.0 (+9.0) | 131.2 (+15.8) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CCU 69 – 68 JMU |
| Feb 19, 2026 | JMU 67 – 65 CCU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | JMU 73 – 64 CCU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | JMU 86 – 76 CCU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | JMU 105 – 67 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#330) | 0.6 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#334) | 0.59 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#334) | 0.60 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.384 (#350) | 0.561 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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