Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NE -750 STBK +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | NE -12.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -10.2 (+0.8) | 142.4 (-11.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -8.3 (+2.7) | 139.6 (-8.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -10.3 (+0.7) | 141.8 (-10.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -10.0 (+1.0) | 142.7 (-11.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | STBK 69 – 55 NE |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STBK 95 – 80 NE |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NE 70 – 66 STBK |
| Mar 9, 2024 | STBK 75 – 65 NE |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STBK 59 – 55 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#201) | -11.2 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#178) | -1.93 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#185) | -2.53 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#169) | 0.429 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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