Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -200 HCU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +24 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -5.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -3.1 (+20.9) | 143.4 (-15.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -4.8 (+19.2) | 142.3 (-14.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -3.8 (+20.2) | 141.7 (-13.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -3.5 (+20.5) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | RGV 74 – 57 HCU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | RGV 68 – 51 HCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HCU 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 19, 2022 | RGV 100 – 90 HCU |
| Dec 11, 2022 | RGV 95 – 82 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#229) | -5.9 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#249) | -1.15 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#247) | -1.17 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#249) | 0.457 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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