Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -485 HCU +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -11.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -9.8 (+7.2) | 137.0 (-6.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -8.3 (+8.7) | 138.5 (-7.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -9.8 (+7.2) | 139.2 (-8.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -9.7 (+7.3) | 140.3 (-9.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | RGV 68 – 51 HCU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | RGV 76 – 52 HCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HCU 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 19, 2022 | RGV 100 – 90 HCU |
| Dec 11, 2022 | RGV 95 – 82 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-8 | 8-14 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#159) | -7.8 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#210) | -1.70 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#192) | -2.05 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#207) | 0.411 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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