We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
American Conference · Reynolds Center · February 15, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TLSA -1.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money TLSA -120 / UTSA +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total TLSA win
Actual TLSA +4 156 Won
Massey UTSA -0.9 (+4.9)
Massey Totals 150.5 (+5.5)
Bradley-Terry 46%
Weighted B-T 44%
Baseline Plus ML UTSA -0.0 (+4.0) 145.6 (+10.4) 50%
Model 4 ML TLSA -0.7 (+3.3) 145.8 (+10.2) 57%
Model 3 ML TLSA -0.1 (+3.9) 143.4 (+12.6) 50%
Baseline ML UTSA -0.1 (+4.1) 143.2 (+12.8) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 22, 2026 TLSA 10074 UTSA
Jan 8, 2025 TLSA 8277 UTSA
Feb 29, 2024 UTSA 8973 TLSA
Jan 18, 2024 TLSA 10778 UTSA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TLSA UTSA
Overall 13-20 12-19
Conference 6-12 6-12
Home 8-9 7-7
Away 3-8 4-11
Neutral 2-3 1-1
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.1 74.4
Avg Pts Against 74.2 77.5
Massey -6.4 (#269) -2.3 (#206)
Bradley-Terry -1.24 (#284) -0.54 (#220)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.42 (#275) -0.53 (#212)
RPI 0.420 (#320) 0.498 (#181)
Shooting & Four Factors TLSA UTSA
FG% 42.3% 41.8%
3PT% 31.0% 34.9%
REB / G 37.1 30.7
OREB / G 11.2 9.6
AST / TO 1.14 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.0% 49.4%
TOV% 17.1% 15.7%
ORB% 30.0% 26.4%
FT Rate 21.7% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.3% 53.9%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 20.6%
DRB% 69.3% 64.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.4% 31.4%

Game Analysis

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