Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -120 UTSA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -0.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -0.0 (+4.0) | 145.6 (+10.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TLSA -0.7 (+3.3) | 145.8 (+10.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TLSA -0.1 (+3.9) | 143.4 (+12.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -0.1 (+4.1) | 143.2 (+12.8) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | TLSA 100 – 74 UTSA |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TLSA 82 – 77 UTSA |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UTSA 89 – 73 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | TLSA 107 – 78 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#269) | -2.3 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#284) | -0.54 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#275) | -0.53 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#320) | 0.498 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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