Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -240 TLSA +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -8.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -5.4 (-10.4) | 151.8 (+7.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UTSA -4.8 (-9.8) | 152.3 (+6.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UTSA -5.4 (-10.4) | 150.0 (+9.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -6.0 (-11.0) | 150.7 (+8.3) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | TLSA 100 – 74 UTSA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TLSA 80 – 76 UTSA |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UTSA 89 – 73 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | TLSA 107 – 78 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#257) | -10.0 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#248) | -2.14 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#271) | -2.45 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#209) | 0.372 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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